Calm down, don’t panic! Enough of the Dad’s Army references. I haven’t joined a doomsday cult (unlikely) or become an obsessive ‘prepper’ (yet). However, I do think it’s worth paying attention to a few things…

There’s always a threat. One of many Tommy Lee Jones lines I enjoy comes from the first Men In Black film.

“There’s ALWAYS an Alien Battle Cruiser, Korilian Death Ray or Inter-Galactic Plague about to wipe out life on this miserable little planet. The only way these people get on with their happy lives is that THEY DO NOT KNOW ABOUT IT.”

Knowing (and doing something) about potential threats that might ‘end civilisation’ is actually quite useful and important if you ask me. To misquote someone important, “planning is useless, but preparation is essential”. I’m keen on ‘being prepared’ for all sorts of eventualities (but I’m not a prepper…).

And, it’s not like people haven’t been talking about this sort of thing forever.

Detail on the threats to civilisation are fairly common, if you care to look. From ‘end of days’ predictions in religious writings through to the ‘history as science’ / ‘learn the lessons from history’ mantra (which we are woefully bad at).

A few things have grabbed my attention over the last few years. Starting with Sir John Glubb’s ‘Fate of Empires and Search for Survival’ published in 1976.

Empires last roughly 250 years. Thanks to Ray McNeil for pointing me in the direction of Glubb. I’d recommend reading the text (link here). Glubb spent a lot of time in Iran and Jordan and the paper does reflect the social norms of the times. Three key points for me:

• Reviewing the rise and fall of empires (civilisations) over 3,000 years, Glubb concluded that on average they last about 250 years.
• Glubb identifies 6 ‘Ages’ of an empire; Pioneers, Conquest, Commerce, Affluence, Intellect and Decadence – leading to decline of the civilisation. Any of this sound familiar?
• Solution wise. Glubb is big on teaching history relating to the human race and ‘love’. Love in the sense of reducing hate and division. I’ll get back to this in a future blog post about ’36 Questions for Civic Love’.

A Democracy lasts 200 Years. Alexander Tytler (1747-1813) was Professor of Universal History, Greek and Roman Antiquities at the University of Edinburgh . It’s worth reading this Twitter/X thread on Tytler’s theory by @thinkingwest.

I’d recommend a good look at the Thinking West site. It’s got everything from the fall of ancient civilisations through to the risks of AI and ChatGPT.

Getting back to Tytler’s theory on the 200 year lifecycle of Democracies. Three key points for me:

• It’s a cycle of growth, affluence and decline – until the next version of democracy / civilisation. A bit like Glubb.
• Democracies are doomed because people are selfish and work out they can vote for the politicians who ‘give them the greatest largesse from the public purse’.
• Poor financial policies always feature at the end of a Democracy. Any of this feel familiar?

Average Civilisation Lifespan is 336 years. Bringing things almost up to date this is taken from a 2019 BBC Future article by Luke Kemp, scholar of Catastrophic Risk at Cambridge University.

Are we on the road to civilisation collapse? lays things out in pretty stark terms. Linking to the Glubb and Tytler it offers a slightly more optimistic 336 years duration.

Again, I recommend having a read of the article but the key points for me are:

• External threats feature more strongly. Obviously Climate Change and Environmental Degradation are high up the list.
• Inequality and Oligarchy come next with the sheer complexity of the systems we’ve evolved as ‘advanced bureaucracies’ coming closely behind.
• There is a ray of hope though. The final sentence of the article says, “We will only march into collapse if we advance blindly. We are only doomed if we are unwilling to listen to the past.”

Are we Doomed – Again? I was going to put something here about the book Megathreats I’m reading by economist Nouriel Roubini but I’ll save that for the next post.

I am wondering though if I should up my prepping game? Things are going to change. Thinking about this stuff, and doing a few things to prepare for ‘any’ eventuality might be a good strategy.

So, What’s the PONT?

1. Human Societies have always gone through cycles of growth and collapse. History tells us that.
2. The current ‘state of the world’ might lead to a bigger, faster collapse than experienced previously. But ‘knowing it’s coming’ might help us prepare and mitigate some of the effects.
3. But we also need to do something. Quoting Luke Kemp “We will only march into collapse if we advance blindly. We are only doomed if we are unwilling to listen to the past.”

PS. I’ve previously written about the value of historians in; Every organisation needs a Historian (Cofiadur). On reflection I think everyone needs to be a historian.